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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."